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Feb 08, 2017

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Customer Support RBAs Hawkish Tilt Reflects Governor on Alert for Asset Bubbles by Lowes statement shows a bank extremely reluctant to cut rates RBA still expects 3 percent growth over next couple of years RBA Holds Cash Rate at 1.5% The Reserve Bank of Australias nod torising leverage and a pick-up in home loans suggests an easing is unlikely any time soon -- given the governor has financial stability hard-wired into his DNA. Philip Lowe and his board left interest rates unchanged at 1.5 percent Tuesday, as expected, andreaffirmed growth would accelerate to about 3 percent over the next couple of years despite a contraction in the third quarter. Lowe also noted the global reflation story and stronger growth in developed countries, spurring commodity prices in a windfall for Australia. The balance of the comments tilts slightly in the hawkish direction, said Andrew Ticehurst, an interest-rate strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney, citing the housing and growth comments. What this shows is a central bank that is extremely reluctant to lower the cash rate, at this point anyway. The Aussie dollar gained and bets on rate cuts slid as the market repriced for a more optimistic outlook, with Lowe again signaling his willingness to absorb weak inflation in order to shore up financial stability. The governor also noted the altered stance of central banks in major economies where theres now no expectation of further monetary easing. At home, Lowe blamed a third-quarter contraction in the economy on temporary factors and predicted a return to reasonable growth in the final three months of 2016. The banks central scenario remains for economic growth to be around 3 percent over the next couple of years, he said. Growth will be boosted by further increases in resource exports and by the period of declining mining investment coming to an end. Consumption growth is expected to pick up from recent outcomes, but to remain moderate. He then restated the central banks expectation of some further pick-up in non-mining business investment, though the RBA has been saying this for several years without it coming to pass.